John M. Antle

Rm #307F Ballard Extension Hall
Oregon State University
Corvallis Oregon 97331-3601



Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1980
M.A., Economics, University of Chicago, 1979
A.B., summa cum laude, Economics and Mathematics, Albion College, 1976

John Antle is a professor in the Department of Applied Economics at Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, and a University Fellow at Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. He received the Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago in 1980, and was formerly a professor at UC Davis and Montana State University. He has served as a senior staff economist for the President's Council of Economic Advisers in Washington, D.C. (1989-90); as a member of the National Research Council's Board on Agriculture (1991 97); and was a lead and contributing author to the IPCC third and fourth assessment reports. He is a Fellow and past President of the American Agricultural Economics Association. His current research focuses on the sustainability of agricultural systems in industrialized and developing countries, including climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation in agriculture; assessment of environmental and social impacts of agricultural technologies; and geologic carbon sequestration.

Many of his research projects are related to the Tradeoff Analysis Project. He is also co-leading the Economics Team of the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).


John Antle is currently teaching annually a PhD field course in the Applied Economics Graduate Program, AEC 640 Sustainable Development. In addition, he has co-developed with collaborators a course on the use of the TOA-MD model. This course includes a User Guide, a set of Learning Modules, and technical documentation for self-guided use. This material is available free to researchers with the model software at the Tradeoff Analysis Project web site ( The web site presents a map showing the global locations of over 400 individuals and institutions that are “registered users” of the TOA-MD software, meaning that they have completed at least the Basic Learning Module, and agreed to the Terms of Use.

Since 2012 the Tradeoff Analysis Project team has offered a 1-week in person workshop at Oregon State University which has been attended by about 20 economists and other scientists from around the world (for details see, as well as training to about 25 economists in the AgMIP Regional Teams in Africa and South Asia (see In 2014, a course on “Crop-Livestock Systems Modeling for Ex Ante Impact Assessment using the TOA-MD and Ruminant Models,” was offered jointly with Mario Herrero, a leading livestock modeler at CSIRO-Australia. This course was designed for economists and scientists who are part of research teams at CGIAR centers with projects on crop-livestock systems. About 20 economists and livestock scientists from 6 CGIAR research programs participated in the course and a week-long workshop at ILRI in Addis Ababa.

The Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

AgMIP is a global community of science aiming to improve agricultural system science and its use in climate impact assessment and analysis of pathways to sustainable agricultural development. As a co-principal investigator of AgMIP, John Antle works with the other co-PIs (Cynthia Rosenzweig of Columbia University and NASA/GISS, James Jones of University of Florida, and Jerry Hatfield of USDA Agricultural Research Service) to organize and lead AgMIP's activities. As the leader of AgMIP’s Regional Economics Team, John Antle led the economics component of a 3-year project funded by the UK Department for International Development in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see, and contributed to the development of a handbook on methods for integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation (

Research Awards and Fellowships

Choices Article of the Year Award, Agricultural and Applied Econ Assn., 2013

Quality of Research Discovery Award, Agricultural and Applied Econ. Assn., 2012

Quality of Research Discovery Award (Honorable Mention), Ag. and Applied Econ. Assn., 2011

University Fellow, Resources for the Future, 1990-present

John Dillon Fellow, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, 2005

Distinguished Fellow, American Agricultural Economics Association, 2002

Policy Article Prize, Center for Intl Food and Ag Policy, University of Minnesota, 1995

Journal Article of the Year (Honorable Mention), Western Ag Economics Association, 1995

Outstanding Journal Article (Honorable Mention), American Ag Economics Assn, 1995

Journal Article of the Year Award, Northeastern Ag and Resource Economics Association, 1992

Outstanding Journal Article, American Agricultural Economics Association, 1988

Resident Fellowship, National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, Resources for the Future, 1986

Gilbert F. White Fellowship, Resources for the Future, 1984-1985

Selected Publications (pdfs available on request)

Antle, J.M. et al. 2014 (in press). AgMIP’s Trans-disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural Systems. In Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems, ed. D. Hillel and C. Rosenzweig.

Valdivia, R.O., J.M. Antle et al. 2014 (in press). Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation. In Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems, ed. D. Hillel and C. Rosenzweig.

Antle, J.M., J. Stoorvogel and R. Valdivia. 2014. New Parsimonious Simulation Methods and Tools to Assess Future Food and Environmental Security of Farm Populations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 369:20120280.

Rosenzweig, C., J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A.C. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, J.M. Antle,G.C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, S. Asseng, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, and J.M. Winter.  2013. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies.  Ag. For. Meteor. 170:166-182.

Antle, J.M and S. Ogle. 2012. “Agricultural GHG Mitigation in the Central U.S. with No-Till: Accounting for Changes in Soil C, N2O and Fuel Use.” Climatic Change 111:609–625.

Claessens, L., J.M. Antle, J.J. Stoorvogel, R.O. Valdivia, P.K. Thornton, and M. Herrero. 2012. A Method for Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Small-Scale Farmers Using Survey, Experimental and Modeled Data. Agricultural Systems 111:85-95.

Valdivia, R., J.M. Antle and J. Stoorvogel. 2012. “Coupling the Tradeoff Analysis Model with a Market Equilibrium Model to Analyze Economic and Environmental Outcomes of Agricultural Production Systems.” Agricultural Systems 110: 17-29.

Valdivia, R., J. Stoorvogel and J.M. Antle. 2012. “Economic and Environmental Impacts of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Scenarios: A Case Study of a Semi-Subsistence Agricultural System.” The International Journal of Climate Change Impacts and Responses 3(2);157-175.

Grace, P., J. Antle, P. Aggarwal, S. Ogle, K. Paustian and B. Basso. 2012. “Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo- Gangetic Plain: a meta-analysis.” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 146: 137– 146.

Antle, J.M. 2011. Parsimonious Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93(5): 1292–1311.

Antle, J.M. and S.M. Capalbo 2010. “Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 32:386-416.

Antle, J.M., B. Diagana, J. Stoorvogel and R. Valdivia (2010), “Minimum-Data Analysis of Ecosystem Service Supply in Semi-Subsistence Agricultural Systems: Evidence from Kenya and Senegal.” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 54:601-617.

Antle, J.M. (2010). “Asymmetry, Partial Moments and Production Risk.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92:1294-1309.

Antle, J.M. (2010), “Do Economic Variables follow Scale or Location-Scale Distributions?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92(1):196-204.

Grace, P., J. Antle, S. Ogle and K. Paustian. 2010. “Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of South-Eastern Australia.” Australian Journal of Soil Research 48: 720–729.

Claessens, L., J.J. Stoorvogel, and J.M. Antle. 2010. “Impacts of Hydrological Field Interactions in an Integrated Assessment Model for Terraced Crop Systems in the Peruvian Andes.” Journal of Land Use Science 5(4): 259–275.

Claessens, L., J.J. Stoorvogel, and J.M. Antle. (2009). "Economic viability of adopting dual-purpose sweet potato in Vihiga district, Western Kenya: a minimum data approach." Agricultural Systems. 99:13-22.

Antle, J.M. and J.J. Stoorvogel. (2008). "Agricultural Carbon Sequestration, Poverty and Sustainability." Environment and Development Economics 13: 327-352.

Immerzeel, W., J. Stoorvogel, and J. Antle. (2008). "Can Payments for Ecosystem Services Secure the Water Tower of Tibet?" Agricultural Systems 96(1-3):52-63.

Antle, J.M., J.J. Stoorvogel, and R.O. Valdivia. (2007). "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Agricultural Carbon Sequestration: Terraces and Agroforestry in the Peruvian Andes." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 122(4):435-445.

Diagana, B., J. Antle, J. Stoorvogel, and K. Gray. (2007). "Economic Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in the Nioro Region of Senegal's Peanut Basin." Agricultural Systems 94(1):26 37.

Antle, J.M., S.M. Capalbo, K.H. Paustian, and M.K. Ali. (2007). "Estimating the Economic Potential for Agricultural Soil Carbon Sequestration in the Central United States Using an Aggregate Econometric-Process Simulation Model." Climatic Change 80(1-2):145-171.

Mooney, S., K. Gerow, J. Antle, S. Capalbo, and K. Paustian. (2007). "Reducing Standard Errors by Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation into a Measurement Scheme for Soil Carbon Credits." Climatic Change 80(1 2):55 72.

Antle, J.M. and J.J. Stoorvogel. (2006). "Predicting the Supply of Ecosystem Services from Agriculture." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(5):1174-1180.

Antle, J.M., J.J. Stoorvogel, and R.O. Valdivia. (2006). "Multiple Equilibria, Soil Conservation Investments, and the Resilience of Agricultural Systems." Environment and Development Economics 11(4):477-492.

Antle, J.M. and R.Valdivia. (2006). "Modeling the Supply of Ecosystem Services from Agriculture: A Minimum-Data Approach." Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 50(1):1-15.

Antle, J.M. and J.J. Stoorvogel. (2006). "Incorporating Systems Dynamics and Spatial Heterogeneity in Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems." Environment and Development Economics 11(1):39-58.

Antle, J.M., R.O. Valdivia, C.C. Crissman, J.J. Stoorvogel, and D. Yanggen. (2005). "Spatial Heterogeneity and Adoption of Soil Conservation Investments: Integrated Assessment of Slow Formation Terraces in the Andes." Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development 1(1):29-53.

Antle, J.M., S.M. Capalbo, E.T. Elliott, and K.H. Paustian. (2004). "Adaptation, Spatial Heterogeneity, and the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization: An Integrated Assessment Approach." Climatic Change 64(3):289-315.

Stoorvogel, J.J., J.M. Antle, C.C. Crissman, and W. Bowen. (2004). “The Tradeoff Analysis Model: Integrated Bio-physical and Economic Modeling of Agricultural Production Systems.” Agricultural Systems 80(1):43-66.

Antle, J.M., S.M. Capalbo, S. Mooney, E.T. Elliott, and K.H. Paustian. (2003). “Spatial Heterogeneity, Contract Design, and the Efficiency of Carbon Sequestration Policies for Agriculture.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 46(2):231-250.

Antle, J.M. and B. Diagana. (2003). “Creating Incentives for the Adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Developing Countries: The Role of Soil Carbon Sequestration.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(5):1178-1184.