“Going from chilly to balmy weather can stimulate more recreation, and our data and models bear that out,” says Prof. Dundas. “But increasing temperature when it’s already hot can curtail fishing participation. For example, we estimate participation declines once daily high temperatures reach the mid-90s Fahrenheit. If the world adopts stringent climate change mitigation efforts, we predict a 2.6% decline in fishing participation by 2080,” Prof. Dundas says. “That’s the overall best-case scenario. Worst-case scenario, we see participation drop 15% by 2080. It could drop by 3.4% in the next 30 years, and by 9.9% as early as 2050.”

The paper, “The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing Demand and Adaptation: Implications for a Changing Climate,” is published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists